NETWORK WORLD NEWSLETTER: 01/03/05

Today's focus:  Linux predictions for 2005

By Phil Hochmuth

Linux starts off the new year looking better than ever, but not
without its challenges. Today, we're dusting off the crystal
ball and taking a look at what users of the open-source
operating system might expect this year.

* The year of the desktop

Many large European government bodies began migrating to Linux
and open-source software on the desktop in 2004. Expect this
trend to carry over stateside with corporations, universities
and government agencies moving to Linux in 2005. AT&T has said
it is looking into Linux desktops as a corporate standard, while
Pennsylvania State University says it wants to dump Internet
Explorer for Firefox Web browsers. IT managers will embrace
Linux desktops to cut costs and improve security.

* Linux grows in blades

IDC says Linux accounted for around half of the blade servers
shipped in the third quarter of 2004, however, blades accounted
for less than 10% of the entire server market. Expect both of
those numbers to grow. As users seek ways to consolidate
multiple servers into smaller, more manageable spaces, Linux
blades will become the weapon of choice for corporate data
center managers.

* Novell/SuSE vs. Red Hat

Expect more heated competition between Novell/SuSE and Red Hat.
Red Hat, long the dominant Linux distro, will start to get a run
for its money as enterprise mainstay Novell puts more emphasis,
marketing and developers behind its SuSE Linux offerings.
Unfortunately, this could mean smaller Linux versions become
more marginalized in U.S. enterprises.

* Microsoft strikes back

As Linux continued to make gains in revenue and market share in
2004, Microsoft floated its Windows XP Starter Edition in some
emerging markets overseas. If Linux begins to make a serious run
at Microsoft's U.S. installed base of corporate desktops, look
for Microsoft to counter with a state-side version of this
product and possibly a server operating system version for SMBs,
which are increasingly turning to Linux as they throw out old
Windows NT platforms.

* Linux security issues could be complicated

With Linux popularity growing, expect to see more Linux-targeted
worms, viruses and malware emerge. While the open-source
community has proven to be responsive in patching security holes
in Linux, the decentralized nature of how Linux updates are
reviewed and released could become an issue if more threats to
the code emerge.
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To contact: Phil Hochmuth

Phil Hochmuth is a Network World Senior Editor and a former
systems integrator. You can reach him at
<mailto:phochmut@nww.com>.
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Copyright Network World, Inc., 2004